Rockford IceHogs at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Rockford IceHogs

0:4

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

RFDCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

38%62%

xG: 2.63.0
High danger: 56
Chances: 98
Shots: 2934

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal34

9Scoring chances8

5High-danger chances6

2.55Expected goals2.99

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–13	1–1	1–1	0.4–0.7
2nd	13–12	6–2	2–2	1.3–1.3
3rd	10–9	2–5	2–3	0.9–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitchell Weeks

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 30
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.99
GSAx: -1.01

Dustin Tokarski

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 29
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.55
GSAx: +2.55

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:12Penalty
1st 16:54Ronan Seeley (0–1)low · 83 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
2nd 4:23Penalty
2nd 5:54Penalty
2nd 9:11Aleksi Heimosalmi (0–2)low · 62 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
2nd 9:59Penalty
2nd 10:40Penalty
2nd 14:02Penalty
2nd 14:58Noel Gunler (0–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
3rd 2:59Penalty
3rd 4:03Skyler Brind’Amour (0–4)5v4 · high · 31 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
3rd 5:59Penalty
3rd 9:49Penalty
3rd 12:08Penalty
3rd 12:40Penalty
3rd 15:30Penalty
3rd 15:30Penalty
3rd 18:07Penalty