Abbotsford Canucks at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Abbotsford Canucks

4:2

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

ABBBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

71%29%

xG: 2.72.1
High danger: 72
Chances: 115
Shots: 2535

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal35

11Scoring chances5

7High-danger chances2

2.72Expected goals2.09

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–8	3–2	2–0	0.9–0.5
2nd	10–12	5–1	3–0	1.2–0.6
3rd	6–15	3–2	2–2	0.6–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	3	4:58 of the 3rd	15:02	11:07	+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ty Young

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 33
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.09
GSAx: +0.09

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.72
GSAx: -1.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:25Penalty
1st 0:25Penalty
1st 2:09Penalty
1st 9:24Penalty
1st 13:51Penalty
1st 14:24Max Sasson (1–0)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 9 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 1:40Danila Klimovich (2–0)low · wrist · 32 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 5:12Penalty
2nd 14:59Alex Kannok Leipert (2–1)low · wrist · 58 ft · beat Ty Young
2nd 16:30Danila Klimovich (3–1)high · wrist · 14 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 4:58Carsen Twarynski (4–1)high · wrist · 16 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 8:14Phil Kemp (4–2)low · wrist · 28 ft · beat Ty Young