Texas Stars at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Texas Stars

2:5

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

TEXRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

64%36%

xG: 3.02.5
High danger: 44
Chances: 118
Shots: 3327

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal27

11Scoring chances8

4High-danger chances4

3.05Expected goals2.55

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–11	4–4	1–2	1.2–1.1
2nd	8–12	4–3	1–2	0.7–1.3
3rd	12–4	3–1	2–0	1.1–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitchell Weeks

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.05
GSAx: +1.05

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 22
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.55
GSAx: -2.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:01Penalty
1st 9:33Justin Hryckowian (1–0)medium · 21 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 10:35Penalty
1st 10:43Frank Nazar (1–1)5v4 · low · 60 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
1st 11:07Antonio Stranges (2–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 12:07Penalty
2nd 1:35Penalty
2nd 6:25Penalty
2nd 6:25Penalty
2nd 10:04Penalty
2nd 13:34Frank Nazar (2–2)low · 39 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
2nd 16:32Colton Dach (2–3)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
2nd 17:22Colton Dach (2–4)high · 15 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 4:30Penalty
3rd 10:35Penalty
3rd 17:42Marcel Marcel (2–5)empty net · low · 96 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 19:52Penalty
3rd 19:52Penalty