AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, November 20

Hershey Bears at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Hershey Bears
3:4
Final / OT
Toronto Marlies

The sheet

HERTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
42%58%
xG
2.62.9
High danger
34
Chances
710
Shots
2321

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TOR above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal21
7Scoring chances10
3High-danger chances4
2.57Expected goals2.90

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–64–22–01.6–0.5
2nd5–101–40–20.4–1.2
3rd5–42–31–10.5–0.6
OT1–10–10–10.1–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Nobody trailed late enough in the third for the goalie to be a decision.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
23
Saves
20
Allowed
3
xGA
2.57
GSAx
-0.43
Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
21
Saves
17
Allowed
4
xGA
2.90
GSAx
-1.10

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:00Penalty
  • 1st 1:35Mike Sgarbossa (1–0)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 2:38Penalty
  • 1st 9:24Penalty
  • 1st 15:02Brennan Saulnier (2–0)grade A · 194 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 16:07Luke Philp (3–0)medium · 23 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 19:04Penalty
  • 2nd 2:32Penalty
  • 2nd 14:42Zach Solow (3–1)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 2nd 19:58Alex Nylander (3–2)high · 14 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 1:32Penalty
  • 3rd 1:32Penalty
  • 3rd 2:37Penalty
  • 3rd 6:33Penalty
  • 3rd 8:30Alex Nylander (3–3)5v4 · low · 51 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • OT 0:47Nick Abruzzese (3–4)grade A · 18 ft · beat Hunter Shepard