Calgary Wranglers at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Calgary Wranglers

4:3

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

CGYSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

51%49%

xG: 1.81.6
High danger: 23
Chances: 97
Shots: 2219

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal19

9Scoring chances7

2High-danger chances3

1.75Expected goals1.65

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–9	4–3	1–1	0.7–0.8
2nd	8–6	4–3	0–2	0.7–0.7
3rd	7–4	1–1	1–0	0.4–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 18
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.75
GSAx: -2.25

Devin Cooley

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 16
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.65
GSAx: -1.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:39Penalty
1st 2:30Jan Myšák (0–1)4v5 · low · 55 ft · beat Devin Cooley
1st 4:07Lucas Ciona (1–1)medium · 21 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
1st 10:39Penalty
1st 11:25Roland McKeown (1–2)4v5 · medium · 17 ft · beat Devin Cooley
1st 12:10Jérémie Poirier (2–2)5v4 · low · 50 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
1st 16:33Penalty
1st 17:36Penalty
1st 19:45Pavol Regenda (2–3)high · rebound · 35 ft · beat Devin Cooley
2nd 3:02Penalty
2nd 3:02Penalty
2nd 3:27Jakob Pelletier (3–3)medium · 10 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 7:51Penalty
2nd 8:46Walker Duehr (4–3)4v5 · medium · 12 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 14:41Penalty