AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, November 22

Iowa Wild at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Iowa Wild
5:2
Final
Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

IAGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
70%30%
xG
2.71.9
High danger
63
Chances
106
Shots
3123

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
GR above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal23
10Scoring chances6
6High-danger chances3
2.68Expected goals1.87

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–74–21–10.8–0.5
2nd9–111–21–20.6–0.9
3rd13–55–24–01.2–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

GR−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
GR215:50 of the 3rd4:104:10+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa
Shots faced
31
Saves
26
Allowed
5
xGA
2.68
GSAx
-2.32
Dylan Ferguson
Shots faced
23
Saves
21
Allowed
2
xGA
1.87
GSAx
-0.13

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:29Amadeus Lombardi (0–1)high · wrist · 9 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 1st 15:30Brendan Gaunce (1–1)medium · tip · 13 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 1st 19:57Penalty
  • 1st 19:57Penalty
  • 2nd 8:28Penalty
  • 2nd 8:28Penalty
  • 2nd 11:09David Špaček (2–1)low · wrist · 52 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 2nd 14:22Joe Snively (2–2)high · 6 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 2nd 16:11Penalty
  • 2nd 16:11Penalty
  • 2nd 16:11Penalty
  • 3rd 14:02Luke Toporowski (3–2)high · 18 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 3rd 15:50Liam Öhgren (4–2)high · tip · 6 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 3rd 18:30Bradley Marek (5–2)empty net · low · 124 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 3rd 19:24Penalty