Utica Comets at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Utica Comets

4:3

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

UTCSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

60%40%

xG: 3.22.6
High danger: 65
Chances: 128
Shots: 3329

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal29

12Scoring chances8

6High-danger chances5

3.24Expected goals2.57

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–10	5–2	4–2	1.5–0.8
2nd	10–8	4–3	2–1	1.0–0.8
3rd	10–11	3–3	0–2	0.7–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	1	18:47 of the 3rd	1:13	1:13	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.24
GSAx: -0.76

Isaac Poulter

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.57
GSAx: -0.43

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:00Penalty
1st 3:36Ryan Schmelzer (1–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 30 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 2:41Adam Beckman (2–0)medium · 13 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 6:58Penalty
2nd 9:37Penalty
2nd 10:13Jesse Ylonen (2–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
2nd 16:52Penalty
2nd 16:52Penalty
2nd 17:30Penalty
3rd 5:55Penalty
3rd 6:04Niko Huuhtanen (2–2)5v4 · high · 26 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
3rd 10:06Mike Hardman (3–2)medium · rebound · 30 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 15:20Conor Sheary (3–3)medium · 15 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
3rd 17:47Penalty
3rd 18:47Mike Hardman (4–3)5v4 · medium · 12 ft · beat Matt Tomkins