Belleville Senators at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Belleville Senators

4:2

Final

Laval Rocket

The sheet

BELLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

55%45%

xG: 2.62.3
High danger: 43
Chances: 98
Shots: 2824

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal24

9Scoring chances8

4High-danger chances3

2.56Expected goals2.29

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–14	2–6	0–3	0.4–1.6
2nd	12–4	3–1	2–0	1.0–0.3
3rd	11–6	4–1	2–0	1.1–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LAV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Hughes

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.56
GSAx: -1.44

Malcolm Subban

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.29
GSAx: +0.29

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:51Penalty
1st 5:20Penalty
1st 6:21Brandon Gignac (0–1)5v4 · high · wrist · 21 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
1st 8:00Penalty
1st 9:49Adam Engström (0–2)5v4 · low · wrist · 56 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
1st 18:02Penalty
2nd 7:28Penalty
2nd 7:28Penalty
2nd 7:28Penalty
2nd 9:56Jamieson Rees (1–2)low · wrist · 28 ft · beat Connor Hughes
2nd 11:11Penalty
2nd 13:13Philippe Daoust (2–2)high · tip · 15 ft · beat Connor Hughes
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 2:31Wyatte Wylie (3–2)low · wrist · 32 ft · beat Connor Hughes
3rd 4:37Penalty
3rd 13:18Penalty
3rd 19:28Cole Reinhardt (4–2)empty net · low · wrist · 27 ft · beat Connor Hughes
3rd 19:53Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty