Hershey Bears at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Hershey Bears

4:3

Final / OT

Rochester Americans

The sheet

HERROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 2.83.1
High danger: 64
Chances: 710
Shots: 2826

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal26

7Scoring chances10

6High-danger chances4

2.80Expected goals3.08

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–8	1–4	1–1	0.6–0.9
2nd	7–4	2–2	2–0	0.8–0.4
3rd	9–14	3–4	2–3	0.9–1.7
OT	3–0	1–0	1–0	0.4–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:55	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.80
GSAx: -1.20

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 23
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.08
GSAx: +0.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:40Alex Limoges (1–0)high · rebound · 36 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 10:35Kale Clague (1–1)grade A · rebound · 21 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 11:24Penalty
1st 18:15Penalty
1st 19:15Chase Priskie (2–1)5v4 · low · 54 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 18:13Penalty
3rd 1:41Penalty
3rd 1:41Penalty
3rd 3:08Penalty
3rd 3:49Brett Murray (2–2)5v4 · low · 25 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 7:10Penalty
3rd 16:20Kale Clague (2–3)medium · 7 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 19:33Penalty
3rd 19:51Mike Vecchione (3–3)5v4 · grade A · 12 ft · beat Devon Levi
OT 3:38Mike Vecchione (4–3)low · 16 ft · beat Devon Levi