AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, November 22

Calgary Wranglers at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Calgary Wranglers
3:5
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

CGYTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
41%59%
xG
2.02.5
High danger
44
Chances
810
Shots
2225

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal25
8Scoring chances10
4High-danger chances4
2.02Expected goals2.52

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–92–41–10.5–0.8
2nd7–113–41–10.7–1.0
3rd9–53–22–20.8–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−3−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY30:00 of the 3rd20:0018:15+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Waltteri Ignatjew
Shots faced
25
Saves
20
Allowed
5
xGA
2.52
GSAx
-2.48
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
22
Saves
19
Allowed
3
xGA
2.02
GSAx
-0.98

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:50Josh Doan (0–1)high · 10 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 1st 9:39Penalty
  • 1st 14:55Austin Poganski (0–2)medium · 22 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 1st 17:22Clark Bishop (1–2)high · 9 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 5:51Penalty
  • 2nd 7:09Ben McCartney (1–3)4v5 · medium · 14 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 2nd 9:33Sam Lipkin (1–4)medium · 12 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 2nd 11:44Penalty
  • 2nd 11:44Penalty
  • 3rd 1:13Ilya Solovyov (2–4)low · 66 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 1:58Penalty
  • 3rd 1:58Penalty
  • 3rd 2:24Penalty
  • 3rd 2:58Andrew Agozzino (2–5)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 20 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 3rd 7:17Penalty
  • 3rd 7:17Penalty
  • 3rd 9:08Penalty
  • 3rd 14:13Clark Bishop (3–5)high · 23 ft · beat Matthew Villalta