Abbotsford Canucks at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Abbotsford Canucks

7:1

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

ABBHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

91%9%

xG: 4.21.8
High danger: 70
Chances: 154
Shots: 4230

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

42Shots on goal30

15Scoring chances4

7High-danger chances0

4.19Expected goals1.84

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	17–7	4–1	2–0	1.4–0.4
2nd	13–12	7–1	2–0	1.4–0.8
3rd	12–11	4–2	3–0	1.3–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	5	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jesper Vikman

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 35
Allowed: 7
xGA: 4.19
GSAx: -2.81

Ty Young

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.84
GSAx: +0.84

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:09Tristen Nielsen (1–0)low · wrist · 43 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
1st 11:34Penalty
1st 13:21Ty Mueller (2–0)5v4 · low · wrist · 41 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
1st 16:32Riley McKay (2–1)low · wrist · 33 ft · beat Ty Young
1st 16:58Penalty
1st 18:08Chase Wouters (3–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · 9 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
2nd 3:48Penalty
2nd 8:34Ty Glover (4–1)medium · wrist · 21 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
2nd 13:34Penalty
2nd 16:15John Stevens (5–1)medium · wrist · 10 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
2nd 17:25Penalty
2nd 17:25Penalty
2nd 18:14Danila Klimovich (6–1)high · tip · 8 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
3rd 2:37Penalty
3rd 2:37Penalty
3rd 2:37Penalty
3rd 2:37Penalty
3rd 2:37Penalty
3rd 2:37Penalty
3rd 5:40Kirill Kudryavtsev (7–1)grade A · wrist · rebound · 16 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
3rd 14:54Penalty
3rd 17:20Penalty