San Jose Barracuda at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

San Jose Barracuda

0:3

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

SJTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

26%74%

xG: 1.62.8
High danger: 24
Chances: 511
Shots: 2330

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal30

5Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances4

1.62Expected goals2.78

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–16	1–3	0–1	0.3–1.2
2nd	7–11	1–6	0–1	0.4–1.2
3rd	8–3	3–2	2–2	0.8–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.57
GSAx: +0.57

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 23
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.62
GSAx: +1.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:06Penalty
1st 14:28Sam Stevens (0–1)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
2nd 4:02Penalty
2nd 4:02Penalty
2nd 10:15Penalty
2nd 10:23Roni Hirvonen (0–2)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
2nd 16:50Penalty
2nd 19:15Penalty
3rd 1:46Penalty
3rd 4:49Penalty
3rd 5:07Penalty
3rd 9:02Penalty
3rd 19:08Ryan Tverberg (0–3)empty net · high · 16 ft