Milwaukee Admirals at Cleveland Monsters

Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse · Cleveland, OH

Milwaukee Admirals

1:4

Final

Cleveland Monsters

The sheet

MILCLESolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

53%47%

xG: 3.13.3
High danger: 75
Chances: 108
Shots: 2729

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLE above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% CLE.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal29

10Scoring chances8

7High-danger chances5

3.13Expected goals3.26

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–6	3–1	2–0	0.8–0.5
2nd	8–12	5–6	4–4	1.3–2.1
3rd	11–11	2–1	1–1	1.0–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	3	1:48 of the 3rd	18:12	18:12	+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.26
GSAx: -0.74

Jet Greaves

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.13
GSAx: +2.13

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:55Penalty
1st 6:39Penalty
2nd 2:36Penalty
2nd 3:00Penalty
2nd 4:37Penalty
2nd 7:18Penalty
2nd 12:55Justin Pearson (0–1)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 13:49Penalty
2nd 17:13Trey Fix-Wolansky (0–2)low · 55 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 18:11Penalty
3rd 1:48Ole Julian Bjørgvik-Holm (0–3)low · 50 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 8:46Mikael Pyyhtiä (0–4)high · 13 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 9:35Penalty
3rd 9:35Penalty
3rd 10:19Penalty
3rd 10:30Penalty
3rd 17:21Kyle Marino (1–4)low · 36 ft · beat Jet Greaves
3rd 17:30Penalty