Utica Comets at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Utica Comets

5:1

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

UTCROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

34%66%

xG: 2.33.4
High danger: 45
Chances: 813
Shots: 2836

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal36

8Scoring chances13

4High-danger chances5

2.32Expected goals3.39

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–10	1–3	1–1	0.5–0.8
2nd	11–17	4–7	2–2	1.0–1.6
3rd	11–9	3–3	1–2	0.7–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 35
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.39
GSAx: +2.39

Felix Sandström

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 11
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.18
GSAx: -2.82

Michael Houser

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 12
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.14
GSAx: +0.14

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:12Penalty
1st 11:16Brian Halonen (1–0)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Felix Sandström
1st 18:25Penalty
2nd 2:18Penalty
2nd 6:59Mike Hardman (2–0)low · 19 ft · beat Felix Sandström
2nd 8:14Penalty
2nd 9:56Brian Halonen (3–0)5v4 · low · 50 ft · beat Felix Sandström
2nd 10:37Penalty
2nd 15:24Nathan Légaré (4–0)low · 42 ft · beat Felix Sandström
2nd 19:21Penalty
2nd 19:21Penalty
3rd 10:03Ryan Schmelzer (5–0)low · 38 ft · beat Michael Houser
3rd 19:49Brendan Warren (5–1)high · 8 ft · beat Nico Daws