Springfield Thunderbirds at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Springfield Thunderbirds

4:2

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

SPRHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

38%62%

xG: 2.02.8
High danger: 23
Chances: 79
Shots: 2333

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal33

7Scoring chances9

2High-danger chances3

1.96Expected goals2.84

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–14	4–6	1–2	0.6–1.4
2nd	10–9	3–1	1–1	1.0–0.7
3rd	6–10	0–2	0–0	0.3–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.84
GSAx: +0.84

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.96
GSAx: -2.04

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:15Penalty
1st 8:51Matthew Peca (1–0)high · 13 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 15:09Penalty
1st 16:17Penalty
1st 19:00Matt Rempe (1–1)low · 9 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 19:13Marcus Sylvegard (2–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 1:12Penalty
2nd 5:00Penalty
2nd 9:20Penalty
2nd 12:27Penalty
2nd 17:51Matthew Peca (3–1)low · rebound · 31 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 5:49Brett Berard (3–2)low · 61 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 19:30Matt Luff (4–2)empty net · low · 40 ft · beat Dylan Garand