AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 23

Hershey Bears at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Hershey Bears
5:4
Final / SO
Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

HERSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
84%16%
xG
2.71.8
High danger
20
Chances
75
Shots
3525

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SYR above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal25
7Scoring chances5
2High-danger chances0
2.67Expected goals1.78

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–34–01–00.9–0.1
2nd12–71–10–00.7–0.5
3rd9–102–31–01.0–0.8
OT1–50–10–00.1–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SYR0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SYR213:58 of the 3rd6:021:00+0.026 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Halverson
Shots faced
35
Saves
31
Allowed
4
xGA
2.67
GSAx
-1.33
Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
25
Saves
21
Allowed
4
xGA
1.78
GSAx
-2.22

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:06Grant Cruikshank (1–0)medium · 32 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
  • 1st 14:43Penalty
  • 1st 18:53Ethen Frank (2–0)high · 20 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
  • 2nd 5:58Penalty
  • 2nd 15:59Niko Huuhtanen (2–1)low · 39 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 2nd 17:23Penalty
  • 2nd 17:23Penalty
  • 2nd 17:23Penalty
  • 3rd 2:01Henrik Rybinski (3–1)low · 18 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
  • 3rd 2:41Penalty
  • 3rd 5:13Penalty
  • 3rd 11:59Niko Huuhtanen (3–2)low · 45 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 12:45Penalty
  • 3rd 13:58Pierrick Dubé (4–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
  • 3rd 14:20Tobie Bisson (4–3)low · 38 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 17:34Dylan Duke (4–4)medium · 28 ft · beat Hunter Shepard