Rockford IceHogs at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Rockford IceHogs

2:3

Final / OT

Texas Stars

The sheet

RFDTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 3.73.3
High danger: 85
Chances: 1114
Shots: 2932

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal32

11Scoring chances14

8High-danger chances5

3.71Expected goals3.29

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–13	3–5	2–2	0.8–1.2
2nd	12–8	4–6	2–3	1.2–1.3
3rd	8–9	3–3	3–0	1.3–0.6
OT	1–2	1–0	1–0	0.4–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:35	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitchell Weeks

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.29
GSAx: +0.29

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.71
GSAx: +1.71

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:12Penalty
1st 14:29Jack Becker (0–1)low · 52 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 14:37Penalty
1st 19:32Penalty
2nd 2:01Penalty
2nd 4:54Penalty
2nd 8:57Penalty
2nd 18:43Zach Sanford (1–1)high · 16 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
2nd 19:02Curtis McKenzie (1–2)grade A · 14 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
2nd 19:48Penalty
2nd 19:48Penalty
3rd 3:21Penalty
3rd 7:47Penalty
3rd 19:31Cole Guttman (2–2)grade A · 33 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
OT 1:57Cameron Hughes (2–3)low · 26 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks