Ontario Reign at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Ontario Reign

4:1

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

ONTSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

56%44%

xG: 2.22.4
High danger: 33
Chances: 96
Shots: 2934

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal34

9Scoring chances6

3High-danger chances3

2.25Expected goals2.37

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–10	3–1	1–0	0.9–0.6
2nd	9–10	4–2	2–1	0.9–0.6
3rd	9–14	2–3	0–2	0.5–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 33
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.37
GSAx: +1.37

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.24
GSAx: -0.76

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:24Penalty
1st 12:08Penalty
1st 15:55Samuel Fagemo (1–0)low · 28 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
1st 18:01Penalty
1st 18:19Penalty
1st 19:11Jack Studnicka (2–0)medium · 36 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 2:55Penalty
2nd 5:02Roman Kinal (2–1)low · 43 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 16:50Penalty
2nd 18:32Penalty
3rd 0:35Jeff Malott (3–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 8:08Penalty
3rd 12:05Penalty
3rd 17:26Charles Hudon (4–1)empty net · low · 104 ft
3rd 18:54Penalty