AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 23

Calgary Wranglers at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Calgary Wranglers
2:6
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

CGYTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
23%77%
xG
3.05.1
High danger
410
Chances
918
Shots
3639

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

024P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal39
9Scoring chances18
4High-danger chances10
3.01Expected goals5.14

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–153–61–30.8–2.2
2nd13–175–83–41.3–2.1
3rd13–71–40–30.9–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY36:50 of the 3rd13:1013:10+0.019 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devin Cooley
Shots faced
39
Saves
33
Allowed
6
xGA
5.14
GSAx
-0.86
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
36
Saves
34
Allowed
2
xGA
3.01
GSAx
+1.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 11:52Penalty
  • 1st 13:51Sam Lipkin (0–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 1st 14:19Penalty
  • 1st 14:33Dryden Hunt (1–1)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 1:46Clark Bishop (2–1)high · 9 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 5:00Penalty
  • 2nd 5:27Penalty
  • 2nd 9:50Kailer Yamamoto (2–2)medium · 6 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 2nd 12:18Cameron Hebig (2–3)high · 11 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 2nd 14:13Penalty
  • 2nd 15:39Josh Doan (2–4)5v4 · medium · 35 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 3rd 6:50Sam Lipkin (2–5)high · 8 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 3rd 15:30Penalty
  • 3rd 18:14Montana Onyebuchi (2–6)empty net · low · 162 ft · beat Devin Cooley