Abbotsford Canucks at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Abbotsford Canucks

2:0

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

ABBHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

65%35%

xG: 3.22.4
High danger: 64
Chances: 1111
Shots: 3121

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal21

11Scoring chances11

6High-danger chances4

3.21Expected goals2.40

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–5	5–0	2–0	1.5–0.3
2nd	14–5	4–3	2–1	1.1–0.6
3rd	4–11	2–8	2–3	0.6–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Akira Schmid

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.21
GSAx: +1.21

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 21
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.40
GSAx: +2.40

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:37Penalty
1st 11:56Penalty
1st 15:09Penalty
1st 18:21Penalty
2nd 4:26Penalty
2nd 7:45Penalty
2nd 8:25Penalty
2nd 9:31Jonathan Lekkerimäki (1–0)high · wrist · 10 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 18:27Penalty
2nd 18:49Tristen Nielsen (2–0)5v4 · high · wrist · 17 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 5:42Penalty
3rd 9:17Penalty
3rd 9:17Penalty
3rd 10:08Penalty
3rd 13:36Penalty
3rd 17:54Penalty