AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, November 24

Colorado Eagles at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Colorado Eagles
4:2
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

COLBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
85%15%
xG
5.52.4
High danger
122
Chances
228
Shots
4434

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0246P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

44Shots on goal34
22Scoring chances8
12High-danger chances2
5.52Expected goals2.40

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14–153–32–10.9–0.8
2nd19–912–48–13.4–0.8
3rd11–107–12–01.2–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
44
Saves
40
Allowed
4
xGA
5.52
GSAx
+1.52
Kevin Mandolese
Shots faced
34
Saves
32
Allowed
2
xGA
2.40
GSAx
+0.40

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:59Penalty
  • 1st 14:09Penalty
  • 1st 15:39Penalty
  • 1st 19:25Penalty
  • 1st 19:32Penalty
  • 2nd 2:10Seth Griffith (0–1)low · wrist · 34 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 2nd 5:37Chase Bradley (1–1)high · wrist · 11 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 6:03Penalty
  • 2nd 7:22Nikita Prishchepov (2–1)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 9 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 9:08Penalty
  • 2nd 14:06Penalty
  • 2nd 14:06Penalty
  • 2nd 17:00Penalty
  • 2nd 18:54Penalty
  • 2nd 18:54Penalty
  • 2nd 18:54Penalty
  • 2nd 18:54Penalty
  • 2nd 18:54Penalty
  • 2nd 18:54Penalty
  • 2nd 18:54Penalty
  • 3rd 5:54Seth Griffith (2–2)low · wrist · 26 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 3rd 8:30Penalty
  • 3rd 8:30Penalty
  • 3rd 8:30Penalty
  • 3rd 8:30Penalty
  • 3rd 8:49Jayson Megna (3–2)5v4 · high · tip · rebound · 11 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 12:09Penalty
  • 3rd 16:13Penalty
  • 3rd 19:22Matthew Phillips (4–2)empty net · low · wrist · 65 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue