Coachella Valley Firebirds at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Coachella Valley Firebirds

8:2

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

CVTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

69%31%

xG: 3.82.6
High danger: 53
Chances: 1410
Shots: 3529

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal29

14Scoring chances10

5High-danger chances3

3.75Expected goals2.58

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–15	7–6	3–3	1.9–1.4
2nd	12–5	5–1	1–0	1.1–0.4
3rd	10–9	2–3	1–0	0.8–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.58
GSAx: +0.58

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 22
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.08
GSAx: -1.92

Dylan Wells

Shots faced: 8
Saves: 5
Allowed: 3
xGA: 0.67
GSAx: -2.33

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:38Cameron Hebig (0–1)low · 42 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
1st 7:07Penalty
1st 9:13Penalty
1st 10:04Andrew Agozzino (0–2)5v4 · medium · 24 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
1st 11:23Logan Morrison (1–2)low · 22 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 12:29Max McCormick (2–2)low · 35 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 15:28Nikolas Brouillard (3–2)low · 55 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 16:55Penalty
2nd 1:38Penalty
2nd 7:00Jani Nyman (4–2)medium · 27 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 12:49Mitchell Stephens (5–2)high · 10 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 1:09Ryan Winterton (6–2)medium · 32 ft · beat Dylan Wells
3rd 12:11Jagger Firkus (7–2)high · 8 ft · beat Dylan Wells
3rd 14:08Penalty
3rd 19:47Penalty
3rd 19:47Penalty
3rd 19:47Penalty
3rd 19:47Penalty
3rd 19:47Ryan Winterton (8–2)low · 12 ft · beat Dylan Wells