Abbotsford Canucks at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Abbotsford Canucks

3:1

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

ABBBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

18%82%

xG: 1.73.0
High danger: 15
Chances: 711
Shots: 2035

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal35

7Scoring chances11

1High-danger chances5

1.67Expected goals3.00

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–11	1–3	1–3	0.4–1.0
2nd	9–11	4–3	0–1	0.9–0.7
3rd	4–13	2–5	0–1	0.4–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 34
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.00
GSAx: +2.00

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 17
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.67
GSAx: -1.33

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:50Penalty
2nd 1:54Penalty
2nd 9:54Penalty
2nd 11:33Danila Klimovich (1–0)5v4 · low · 45 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 12:46Penalty
2nd 14:52Ty Mueller (2–0)low · wrist · 20 ft · beat Collin Delia
3rd 2:41Penalty
3rd 4:46Cameron Wright (2–1)grade A · wrist · rebound · 13 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 5:56Penalty
3rd 19:56Nils Åman (3–1)empty net · medium · 14 ft · beat Collin Delia