Belleville Senators at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Belleville Senators

1:7

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

BELSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

76%24%

xG: 4.22.2
High danger: 52
Chances: 159
Shots: 4024

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal24

15Scoring chances9

5High-danger chances2

4.25Expected goals2.21

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	19–8	7–3	3–1	2.2–0.7
2nd	10–9	5–4	1–1	1.1–0.9
3rd	11–7	3–2	1–0	0.9–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 39
Allowed: 1
xGA: 4.25
GSAx: +3.25

Malcolm Subban

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 15
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.96
GSAx: -3.04

Michael Simpson

Shots faced: 4
Saves: 2
Allowed: 2
xGA: 0.26
GSAx: -1.74

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:13Penalty
1st 10:05Angus Crookshank (1–0)5v4 · grade A · 28 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 11:47Tristan Allard (1–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
1st 13:39Gabriel Fortier (1–2)high · 17 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
1st 17:13Penalty
1st 18:35Penalty
2nd 10:37Dylan Duke (1–3)low · 24 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
2nd 13:00Conor Sheary (1–4)high · 14 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
2nd 16:43Penalty
2nd 17:43Penalty
3rd 1:24Tristan Allard (1–5)medium · 25 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
3rd 5:19Penalty
3rd 5:19Penalty
3rd 9:11Penalty
3rd 10:18Roman Schmidt (1–6)4v5 · medium · 24 ft · beat Michael Simpson
3rd 13:07Penalty
3rd 13:07Penalty
3rd 16:03Milo Roelens (1–7)low · 34 ft · beat Michael Simpson
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty