Providence Bruins at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Providence Bruins

3:5

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

PROUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

59%41%

xG: 3.02.9
High danger: 55
Chances: 1613
Shots: 2724

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal24

16Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances5

2.98Expected goals2.88

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–6	8–5	3–3	1.5–1.1
2nd	4–12	3–4	0–0	0.5–1.0
3rd	9–6	5–4	2–2	1.0–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.98
GSAx: -0.02

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 19
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.88
GSAx: -2.12

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:07Vinni Lettieri (1–0)high · 7 ft · beat Nico Daws
1st 10:18Joe Gambardella (1–1)grade A · 4 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
1st 14:51Jack Malone (1–2)medium · 28 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
1st 18:22Penalty
2nd 0:23Penalty
2nd 5:35Penalty
2nd 7:42Penalty
3rd 4:42Fabian Lysell (2–2)medium · 11 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 4:59Xavier Parent (2–3)medium · 33 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 10:26Topias Vilen (2–4)low · 33 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 15:20Penalty
3rd 17:50Mike Hardman (2–5)empty net · high · 9 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 19:57Trevor Kuntar (3–5)high · 12 ft · beat Nico Daws