Utica Comets at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Utica Comets

3:2

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

UTCSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

51%49%

xG: 2.11.7
High danger: 22
Chances: 58
Shots: 2923

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal23

5Scoring chances8

2High-danger chances2

2.13Expected goals1.70

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–6	3–1	1–0	1.2–0.3
2nd	10–10	2–3	1–1	0.7–0.7
3rd	6–7	0–4	0–1	0.3–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.13
GSAx: -0.87

Isaac Poulter

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.70
GSAx: -0.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:41Penalty
1st 18:26Penalty
1st 18:26Penalty
1st 18:26Penalty
1st 18:26Penalty
1st 18:26Penalty
2nd 1:52Penalty
2nd 15:15Dalibor Dvorský (0–1)high · 6 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
2nd 16:20Samuel Laberge (1–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 16:40Penalty
2nd 16:40Penalty
3rd 0:16Nolan Foote (2–1)low · 33 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 2:34Penalty
3rd 2:34Penalty
3rd 5:09Penalty
3rd 5:44Seamus Casey (3–1)5v4 · low · 53 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 11:55Penalty
3rd 16:53Penalty
3rd 19:31Drew Callin (3–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Isaac Poulter