Hershey Bears at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Hershey Bears

1:2

Final / OT

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

HERLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

42%58%

xG: 2.42.4
High danger: 25
Chances: 78
Shots: 3026

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal26

7Scoring chances8

2High-danger chances5

2.43Expected goals2.37

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–10	2–2	1–2	1.0–0.8
2nd	9–6	2–4	0–2	0.6–0.7
3rd	7–9	3–2	1–1	0.8–0.8
OT	1–1	0–0	0–0	0.0–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Nobody trailed late enough in the third for the goalie to be a decision.

In goal

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.43
GSAx: +1.43

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.36
GSAx: +0.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:48Penalty
1st 15:10Penalty
1st 15:10Penalty
2nd 3:15Penalty
2nd 6:42Penalty
2nd 8:51Olle Lycksell (0–1)high · 13 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 2:07Penalty
3rd 2:48Ethen Frank (1–1)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 10:18Penalty
3rd 13:23Penalty
OT 0:27Olle Lycksell (1–2)low · 16 ft · beat Clay Stevenson