AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, November 29

Chicago Wolves at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Chicago Wolves
5:3
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

CHIRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
45%55%
xG
3.13.1
High danger
48
Chances
1211
Shots
3626

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal26
12Scoring chances11
4High-danger chances8
3.09Expected goals3.05

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–82–41–20.6–0.8
2nd14–105–42–31.4–1.1
3rd14–85–31–31.2–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso
Shots faced
36
Saves
31
Allowed
5
xGA
3.09
GSAx
-1.91
Dustin Tokarski
Shots faced
26
Saves
23
Allowed
3
xGA
3.05
GSAx
+0.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:00Penalty
  • 1st 6:50Colton Dach (0–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 1st 7:15Tyson Jost (1–1)high · 28 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 9:01Penalty
  • 1st 10:58Frank Nazar (1–2)5v4 · medium · 47 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 2nd 7:59Penalty
  • 2nd 12:51Penalty
  • 2nd 13:16Penalty
  • 2nd 17:14Penalty
  • 3rd 0:33Penalty
  • 3rd 3:41Penalty
  • 3rd 5:33Penalty
  • 3rd 6:42Tyson Jost (2–2)4v5 · medium · 20 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 7:11Landon Slaggert (2–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 3rd 9:43Skyler Brind’Amour (3–3)medium · 11 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 15:58Austin Wagner (4–3)low · 43 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 19:21Noel Gunler (5–3)empty net · low · 49 ft · beat Drew Commesso