Henderson Silver Knights at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Henderson Silver Knights

2:5

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

HSKCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

8%92%

xG: 1.64.3
High danger: 111
Chances: 617
Shots: 2134

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal34

6Scoring chances17

1High-danger chances11

1.64Expected goals4.34

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–6	0–3	0–3	0.2–1.0
2nd	5–21	0–9	0–5	0.3–2.3
3rd	11–7	6–5	1–3	1.2–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	13:48	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Akira Schmid

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 29
Allowed: 5
xGA: 4.34
GSAx: -0.66

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.64
GSAx: -0.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:07Jayson Megna (0–1)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Akira Schmid
1st 3:53Tye Felhaber (0–2)high · 13 ft · beat Akira Schmid
1st 11:45Christoffer Sedoff (1–2)low · 61 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 19:09Penalty
1st 19:09Penalty
2nd 6:09Penalty
2nd 11:27Jere Innala (1–3)medium · 10 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 15:07Jayson Megna (1–4)high · 5 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 17:28Penalty
2nd 17:28Penalty
2nd 19:39Penalty
3rd 2:17Penalty
3rd 5:57Raphael Lavoie (2–4)high · 12 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 10:10Penalty
3rd 10:10Penalty
3rd 12:49Penalty
3rd 16:48Tye Felhaber (2–5)empty net · high · 11 ft · beat Akira Schmid