Hartford Wolf Pack at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Hartford Wolf Pack

1:4

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

HFDSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

52%48%

xG: 2.52.7
High danger: 52
Chances: 1013
Shots: 2431

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal31

10Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances2

2.47Expected goals2.71

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–10	2–4	1–0	0.5–0.9
2nd	7–8	4–6	2–2	0.8–1.0
3rd	11–13	4–3	2–0	1.2–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Louis Domingue

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.71
GSAx: -1.29

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.47
GSAx: +1.47

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:35Matt Luff (0–1)medium · 32 ft · beat Louis Domingue
1st 3:50Penalty
1st 12:40Brandon Scanlin (1–1)low · 54 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 15:32Penalty
1st 16:09Dalibor Dvorský (1–2)5v4 · medium · 28 ft · beat Louis Domingue
1st 16:38Penalty
1st 16:38Penalty
1st 17:41Penalty
2nd 0:11Penalty
2nd 1:04Penalty
3rd 2:43Mathias Laferrière (1–3)medium · 9 ft · beat Louis Domingue
3rd 4:14Penalty
3rd 4:14Penalty
3rd 10:03Penalty
3rd 10:03Penalty
3rd 16:49Matt Luff (1–4)empty net · low · 34 ft · beat Louis Domingue