Henderson Silver Knights at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Henderson Silver Knights

1:6

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

HSKCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 3.13.8
High danger: 77
Chances: 1113
Shots: 3039

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal39

11Scoring chances13

7High-danger chances7

3.09Expected goals3.83

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–11	3–2	2–1	1.0–0.6
2nd	8–15	4–5	4–4	1.0–1.4
3rd	12–13	4–6	1–2	1.1–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	3	4:10 of the 3rd	15:50	15:50	+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 33
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.83
GSAx: -2.17

Kevin Mandolese

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.09
GSAx: +2.09

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:05Penalty
1st 12:20Mark Senden (0–1)low · 24 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
1st 14:20Penalty
2nd 6:27Penalty
2nd 6:34Penalty
2nd 9:36Penalty
2nd 11:03Penalty
2nd 11:45Connor Mayer (0–2)4v5 · medium · 16 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
2nd 13:17Kai Uchacz (1–2)high · 13 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
2nd 16:18Penalty
3rd 0:49Chase Bradley (1–3)low · 10 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 4:10Chase Bradley (1–4)low · 37 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 4:25Penalty
3rd 4:53Jere Innala (1–5)5v4 · medium · 22 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 7:44Penalty
3rd 8:38Penalty
3rd 8:38Penalty
3rd 11:13Jake Wise (1–6)low · 26 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 12:39Penalty
3rd 12:39Penalty
3rd 15:34Penalty