Belleville Senators at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Belleville Senators

2:0

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

BELBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

71%29%

xG: 3.52.3
High danger: 53
Chances: 118
Shots: 3528

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal28

11Scoring chances8

5High-danger chances3

3.51Expected goals2.30

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–10	5–4	2–3	1.3–1.0
2nd	11–8	4–3	2–0	1.2–0.6
3rd	14–10	2–1	1–0	1.0–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	2	14:40 of the 3rd	5:20	5:20	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Marcus Högberg

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 33
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.51
GSAx: +1.51

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 28
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.30
GSAx: +2.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:49Penalty
1st 14:17Penalty
1st 17:28Penalty
1st 17:28Penalty
1st 18:53Penalty
1st 19:58Penalty
2nd 0:17Wyatt Bongiovanni (1–0)5v4 · high · 24 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
2nd 14:15Penalty
2nd 16:39Penalty
2nd 19:23Penalty
3rd 0:47Penalty
3rd 1:41Penalty
3rd 14:40Zack MacEwen (2–0)medium · 31 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
3rd 17:04Penalty