Utica Comets at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Utica Comets

3:0

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

UTCPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 1.82.4
High danger: 22
Chances: 67
Shots: 2333

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal33

6Scoring chances7

2High-danger chances2

1.81Expected goals2.43

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–8	2–0	1–0	0.8–0.4
2nd	6–12	1–5	0–2	0.4–1.3
3rd	6–13	3–2	1–0	0.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 33
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.43
GSAx: +2.43

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 20
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.81
GSAx: -1.19

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:04Nathan Légaré (1–0)low · 30 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 14:54Penalty
1st 17:08Penalty
1st 18:00Penalty
2nd 0:40Penalty
2nd 10:54Penalty
2nd 13:53Penalty
2nd 16:04Brian Halonen (2–0)medium · 27 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 16:48Penalty
2nd 16:48Penalty
3rd 16:02Penalty
3rd 17:09Adam Beckman (3–0)empty net · high · 16 ft · beat Michael DiPietro