AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 30

Texas Stars at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Texas Stars
4:3
Final / SO
Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

TEXCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
66%34%
xG
3.32.8
High danger
53
Chances
128
Shots
3529

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CV above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal29
12Scoring chances8
5High-danger chances3
3.33Expected goals2.77

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–73–30–00.6–0.8
2nd13–76–13–11.6–0.5
3rd9–113–32–10.9–0.9
OT4–40–10–10.3–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CV0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CV118:32 of the 3rd1:280:51+0.034 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleš Stezka
Shots faced
35
Saves
32
Allowed
3
xGA
3.33
GSAx
+0.33
Rémi Poirier
Shots faced
29
Saves
26
Allowed
3
xGA
2.77
GSAx
-0.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:47Penalty
  • 1st 4:47Penalty
  • 1st 5:52John Hayden (0–1)low · 29 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 1st 7:57Penalty
  • 2nd 4:53Penalty
  • 2nd 11:02Ben Meyers (0–2)low · 23 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 2nd 12:44Chase Wheatcroft (1–2)low · 35 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 2nd 14:34Penalty
  • 2nd 18:44Curtis McKenzie (2–2)high · 14 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 2nd 19:47Penalty
  • 3rd 18:32Matěj Blümel (3–2)low · 25 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 3rd 19:23Max McCormick (3–3)grade A · 12 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • OT 2:52Penalty