Ontario Reign at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Ontario Reign

3:1

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

ONTBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

77%23%

xG: 3.92.3
High danger: 63
Chances: 166
Shots: 3726

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal26

16Scoring chances6

6High-danger chances3

3.92Expected goals2.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	16–10	8–1	3–1	1.7–0.6
2nd	10–9	3–4	0–2	0.7–1.1
3rd	11–7	5–1	3–0	1.5–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 34
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.92
GSAx: +0.92

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 25
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.31
GSAx: +1.31

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:48Penalty
1st 2:00Samuel Fagemo (1–0)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
1st 2:50Alex Swetlikoff (1–1)high · 14 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 6:06Glenn Gawdin (2–1)medium · rebound · 16 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
1st 11:20Glenn Gawdin (3–1)high · 11 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 4:56Penalty
2nd 16:56Penalty
2nd 18:50Penalty
3rd 7:04Penalty
3rd 10:02Penalty