AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, December 1

Calgary Wranglers at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Calgary Wranglers
3:2
Final
Manitoba Moose

The sheet

CGYMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
49%51%
xG
2.63.2
High danger
54
Chances
1314
Shots
2237

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MB above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal37
13Scoring chances14
5High-danger chances4
2.65Expected goals3.20

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–154–61–30.7–1.5
2nd7–85–41–00.8–0.8
3rd9–144–43–11.1–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devin Cooley
Shots faced
37
Saves
35
Allowed
2
xGA
3.20
GSAx
+1.20
Thomas Milic
Shots faced
22
Saves
19
Allowed
3
xGA
2.65
GSAx
-0.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 8:33Penalty
  • 1st 17:29Penalty
  • 1st 17:29Penalty
  • 2nd 7:12Penalty
  • 2nd 7:12Penalty
  • 2nd 9:04Penalty
  • 2nd 10:55Penalty
  • 2nd 11:45Penalty
  • 2nd 11:45Penalty
  • 2nd 13:13Penalty
  • 2nd 17:59Penalty
  • 3rd 3:49Martin Frk (1–0)low · 29 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 7:11C.J. Suess (1–1)medium · 8 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 3rd 8:18Rory Kerins (2–1)high · 16 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 9:23Dmitry Kuzmin (2–2)medium · 23 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 3rd 12:20William Strömgren (3–2)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Thomas Milic