Texas Stars at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Texas Stars

5:3

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

TEXONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

35%65%

xG: 2.13.1
High danger: 34
Chances: 912
Shots: 2233

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal33

9Scoring chances12

3High-danger chances4

2.07Expected goals3.13

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–12	2–7	0–3	0.5–1.5
2nd	7–4	4–1	2–0	0.9–0.4
3rd	6–17	3–4	1–1	0.7–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 30
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.13
GSAx: +0.13

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 17
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.07
GSAx: -2.93

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:41Arttu Hyry (1–0)medium · 21 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 1:53Penalty
1st 3:02Samuel Fagemo (1–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
1st 12:17Francesco Pinelli (1–2)medium · 26 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
1st 14:05Penalty
2nd 2:30Penalty
2nd 7:00Penalty
2nd 9:32Alex Petrovic (2–2)low · 31 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 10:41Angus Booth (2–3)low · 26 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
2nd 15:24Arttu Hyry (3–3)low · 43 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 16:44Penalty
3rd 5:55Antonio Stranges (4–3)medium · 23 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 7:08Penalty
3rd 17:32Matěj Blümel (5–3)empty net · high · 6 ft · beat Pheonix Copley