AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, December 3

Henderson Silver Knights at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Henderson Silver Knights
4:3
Final
Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

HSKCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
33%67%
xG
2.03.3
High danger
43
Chances
711
Shots
2138

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CV above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal38
7Scoring chances11
4High-danger chances3
2.03Expected goals3.29

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–113–11–00.8–0.8
2nd10–74–23–21.1–0.6
3rd4–200–80–10.2–1.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CV−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CV116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Akira Schmid
Shots faced
38
Saves
35
Allowed
3
xGA
3.29
GSAx
+0.29
Aleš Stezka
Shots faced
21
Saves
17
Allowed
4
xGA
2.03
GSAx
-1.97

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 9:45Penalty
  • 1st 13:10Matyas Sapovaliv (1–0)high · 8 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 1st 14:12Mitch McLain (2–0)low · 42 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 1st 17:20Penalty
  • 1st 17:20Penalty
  • 1st 19:41Cale Fleury (2–1)low · 23 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 2nd 0:57Penalty
  • 2nd 3:38Penalty
  • 2nd 8:26Ben Meyers (2–2)high · 11 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 2nd 14:10Braeden Bowman (3–2)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 2nd 14:49Penalty
  • 2nd 18:02Penalty
  • 2nd 18:32Jonas Røndbjerg (4–2)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 3rd 5:38Gustav Olofsson (4–3)grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 3rd 6:58Penalty
  • 3rd 17:02Penalty