Rockford IceHogs at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Rockford IceHogs

7:3

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

RFDLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

82%18%

xG: 3.71.9
High danger: 91
Chances: 157
Shots: 3629

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal29

15Scoring chances7

9High-danger chances1

3.75Expected goals1.93

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–12	4–2	3–0	0.9–0.6
2nd	20–9	6–3	5–0	1.9–0.6
3rd	7–8	5–2	1–1	0.9–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	6	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.001 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitchell Weeks

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.93
GSAx: -1.07

Parker Gahagen

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 16
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.17
GSAx: -0.83

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 13
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.58
GSAx: -2.42

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:37Jackson Cates (1–0)high · 16 ft · beat Cal Petersen
1st 6:01Colton Dach (2–0)low · 30 ft · beat Cal Petersen
1st 8:23Anthony Richard (2–1)low · 26 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 8:45Penalty
1st 8:45Penalty
1st 9:23Cole Guttman (3–1)high · 15 ft · beat Cal Petersen
1st 18:01Penalty
2nd 4:45Penalty
2nd 5:29Penalty
2nd 6:37Frank Nazar (4–1)5v4 · high · 23 ft · beat Cal Petersen
2nd 7:28Penalty
2nd 9:36Cole Guttman (5–1)low · 54 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
2nd 13:07Cavan Fitzgerald (6–1)low · 15 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
2nd 19:27Landon Slaggert (7–1)grade A · rebound · 23 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
3rd 1:10Helge Grans (7–2)low · 28 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
3rd 3:57Rhett Gardner (7–3)high · 10 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
3rd 6:33Penalty
3rd 8:25Penalty
3rd 19:22Penalty