Hershey Bears at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Hershey Bears

6:1

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

HERWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

42%58%

xG: 3.03.6
High danger: 44
Chances: 1416
Shots: 3430

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal30

14Scoring chances16

4High-danger chances4

2.98Expected goals3.56

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	16–8	6–5	1–2	1.2–1.3
2nd	10–12	4–6	3–2	1.1–1.4
3rd	8–10	4–5	0–0	0.7–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	5	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.56
GSAx: +2.56

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 20
Allowed: 6
xGA: 2.26
GSAx: -3.74

Filip Larsson

Shots faced: 8
Saves: 8
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.72
GSAx: +0.72

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 14:48Ethan Bear (1–0)medium · wrist · 23 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
1st 19:16Pierrick Dubé (2–0)medium · snap · 13 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
1st 19:54Bogdan Trineyev (3–0)medium · tip · 11 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
2nd 4:05Penalty
2nd 5:09Penalty
2nd 7:41Penalty
2nd 9:13Penalty
2nd 14:32Henrik Rybinski (4–0)high · slap · 16 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
2nd 16:11Alex Limoges (5–0)high · tip · 20 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
2nd 16:27Boris Katchouk (5–1)medium · tip · 8 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 19:43Ethen Frank (6–1)low · wrist · 48 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist