AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, December 4

Utica Comets at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Utica Comets
2:3
Final
Rochester Americans

The sheet

UTCROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
63%37%
xG
1.81.8
High danger
41
Chances
75
Shots
2323

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ROC above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal23
7Scoring chances5
4High-danger chances1
1.83Expected goals1.84

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–92–11–00.5–0.5
2nd8–82–30–10.5–0.9
3rd7–63–13–00.8–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

UTC−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
UTC30:00 of the 3rd20:0016:35+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Isaac Poulter
Shots faced
23
Saves
20
Allowed
3
xGA
1.84
GSAx
-1.16
Devon Levi
Shots faced
23
Saves
21
Allowed
2
xGA
1.83
GSAx
-0.17

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:08Penalty
  • 1st 9:02Penalty
  • 1st 16:55Konsta Helenius (0–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
  • 2nd 11:31Riley Fiddler-Schultz (0–2)medium · 20 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
  • 2nd 17:51Brett Murray (0–3)medium · 26 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
  • 2nd 19:22Penalty
  • 2nd 19:22Penalty
  • 3rd 3:48Penalty
  • 3rd 8:44Mike Hardman (1–3)high · 9 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 10:18Penalty
  • 3rd 10:18Penalty
  • 3rd 12:30Penalty
  • 3rd 19:51Mike Hardman (2–3)high · 6 ft · beat Devon Levi