AHLDashboard
‹ Thursday, December 5

Texas Stars at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Texas Stars
4:6
Final
Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

TEXCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
54%46%
xG
3.64.0
High danger
106
Chances
1514
Shots
3230

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CV above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal30
15Scoring chances14
10High-danger chances6
3.60Expected goals4.04

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14–210–17–02.1–0.2
2nd10–164–72–21.0–2.1
3rd8–121–61–40.4–1.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX117:26 of the 3rd2:342:34+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Hellberg
Shots faced
30
Saves
24
Allowed
6
xGA
4.04
GSAx
-1.96
Nikke Kokko
Shots faced
16
Saves
13
Allowed
3
xGA
2.52
GSAx
-0.48
Aleš Stezka
Shots faced
16
Saves
15
Allowed
1
xGA
1.09
GSAx
+0.09

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:31Lian Bichsel (1–0)low · 51 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 1st 2:38Penalty
  • 1st 5:28Penalty
  • 1st 5:28Penalty
  • 1st 8:17Ian McKinnon (1–1)low · 39 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 1st 9:36Penalty
  • 1st 10:27Chase Wheatcroft (2–1)5v4 · grade A · 7 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 1st 13:01Penalty
  • 1st 14:18Penalty
  • 1st 15:43Antonio Stranges (3–1)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 4:11Penalty
  • 2nd 5:45Max McCormick (3–2)5v4 · medium · 21 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 2nd 6:20Penalty
  • 2nd 12:42Penalty
  • 2nd 14:00Ben Meyers (3–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 2nd 15:17Antonio Stranges (4–3)low · 32 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 2nd 16:54Penalty
  • 3rd 0:37Penalty
  • 3rd 2:55Penalty
  • 3rd 15:04Penalty
  • 3rd 15:13Ben Meyers (4–4)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 17:26Lleyton Roed (4–5)high · 12 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 18:11Penalty
  • 3rd 18:11Ben Meyers (4–6)empty net · high · 17 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 19:18Penalty
  • 3rd 19:18Penalty