Rockford IceHogs at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Rockford IceHogs

0:4

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

RFDHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

17%83%

xG: 2.44.2
High danger: 212
Chances: 815
Shots: 2434

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal34

8Scoring chances15

2High-danger chances12

2.38Expected goals4.19

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–7	2–3	1–2	0.7–0.8
2nd	11–17	3–9	1–7	1.1–2.4
3rd	6–10	3–3	0–3	0.6–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	3	3:27 of the 3rd	16:33	16:33	+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 30
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.19
GSAx: +0.19

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 24
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.38
GSAx: +2.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:32Penalty
1st 12:08Penalty
1st 12:08Penalty
1st 12:08Penalty
1st 15:33Penalty
1st 16:59Penalty
2nd 5:31Dylan Roobroeck (0–1)high · 9 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 6:01Penalty
2nd 6:55Penalty
2nd 14:36Jaroslav Chmelar (0–2)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 15:37Penalty
3rd 0:27Penalty
3rd 3:27Jake Leschyshyn (0–3)high · 15 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 16:52Alex Belzile (0–4)empty net · low · 156 ft · beat Drew Commesso