AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, December 6

Belleville Senators at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Belleville Senators
6:3
Final
Manitoba Moose

The sheet

BELMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
91%9%
xG
3.71.3
High danger
91
Chances
155
Shots
3422

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MB above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal22
15Scoring chances5
9High-danger chances1
3.67Expected goals1.35

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–53–12–00.9–0.2
2nd17–96–24–11.7–0.6
3rd9–86–23–01.2–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kaapo Kähkönen
Shots faced
33
Saves
28
Allowed
5
xGA
3.67
GSAx
-1.33
Leevi Meriläinen
Shots faced
22
Saves
19
Allowed
3
xGA
1.35
GSAx
-1.65

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:33Chaz Lucius (0–1)low · 50 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 1st 7:16Penalty
  • 1st 12:33Parker Ford (0–2)low · 71 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 1st 16:08Penalty
  • 1st 18:32Penalty
  • 2nd 4:01Jaret Anderson-Dolan (0–3)low · 70 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 9:37Xavier Bourgault (1–3)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 2nd 12:37Tyler Boucher (2–3)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 2nd 18:19Angus Crookshank (3–3)high · 12 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 3rd 5:13Keean Washkurak (4–3)high · 11 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 3rd 8:30Penalty
  • 3rd 18:47Garrett Pilon (5–3)empty net · medium · 19 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 3rd 19:15Stephen Halliday (6–3)empty net · low · 101 ft