Tucson Roadrunners at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Tucson Roadrunners

2:4

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

TUCCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

45%55%

xG: 3.23.9
High danger: 98
Chances: 1317
Shots: 3134

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal34

13Scoring chances17

9High-danger chances8

3.24Expected goals3.86

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–14	5–6	4–2	1.3–1.6
2nd	5–7	2–4	1–2	0.5–0.8
3rd	15–13	6–7	4–4	1.4–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	3	1:16 of the 3rd	18:44	5:12	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 30
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.86
GSAx: -0.14

Devin Cooley

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.24
GSAx: +1.24

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:17William Strömgren (0–1)low · 27 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 9:20Penalty
1st 10:47Penalty
1st 16:33Jonathan Aspirot (0–2)low · wrist · 35 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 2:40Penalty
2nd 2:40Penalty
2nd 3:35Penalty
2nd 10:31Penalty
2nd 17:13Penalty
3rd 1:16Martin Frk (0–3)medium · wrist · 24 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 1:38Penalty
3rd 2:20Egor Sokolov (1–3)5v4 · high · slap · 24 ft · beat Devin Cooley
3rd 5:32Penalty
3rd 13:13Curtis Douglas (2–3)low · wrist · 28 ft · beat Devin Cooley
3rd 16:49Penalty
3rd 19:48Dryden Hunt (2–4)empty net · low · wrist · 124 ft · beat Matthew Villalta