AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, December 6

Bakersfield Condors at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Bakersfield Condors
3:5
Final
San Diego Gulls

The sheet

BAKSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
42%58%
xG
1.62.0
High danger
12
Chances
66
Shots
2522

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SD above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal22
6Scoring chances6
1High-danger chances2
1.60Expected goals1.99

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–72–11–00.8–0.5
2nd7–93–30–10.6–0.9
3rd5–61–20–10.2–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Calle Clang
Shots faced
25
Saves
22
Allowed
3
xGA
1.60
GSAx
-1.40
Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
22
Saves
17
Allowed
5
xGA
1.99
GSAx
-3.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:49Penalty
  • 1st 2:24Penalty
  • 1st 6:11Cam Dineen (1–0)5v4 · low · 63 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 1st 10:07Penalty
  • 1st 13:13Penalty
  • 1st 17:15Penalty
  • 2nd 1:27Penalty
  • 2nd 1:27Penalty
  • 2nd 2:52Penalty
  • 2nd 5:02Penalty
  • 2nd 6:45Sasha Pastujov (1–1)5v4 · low · 52 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 14:17Cameron Wright (2–1)medium · 27 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 3rd 2:19Phil Kemp (3–1)low · 35 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 3rd 5:51Yegor Sidorov (3–2)low · 34 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 6:14Roland McKeown (3–3)low · 38 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 9:54Coulson Pitre (3–4)medium · 13 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 19:43Judd Caulfield (3–5)empty net · low · 58 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue