Toronto Marlies at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Toronto Marlies

4:5

Final

Laval Rocket

The sheet

TORLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

47%53%

xG: 2.62.4
High danger: 34
Chances: 99
Shots: 2532

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal32

9Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances4

2.57Expected goals2.41

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–9	5–2	3–0	1.4–0.6
2nd	6–6	2–1	0–1	0.4–0.3
3rd	10–17	2–6	0–3	0.7–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	1	19:40 of the 3rd	0:20	0:20	+0.006 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Hughes

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.57
GSAx: -1.43

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.80
GSAx: -2.20

Matt Murray

Shots faced: 9
Saves: 8
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.61
GSAx: -0.39

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:41Adam Engström (0–1)low · wrist · 40 ft · beat Matt Murray
1st 11:06Penalty
1st 11:27Alex Steeves (1–1)5v4 · medium · slap · 39 ft · beat Connor Hughes
1st 15:28Penalty
1st 16:22Penalty
1st 18:23Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 13:08Robert Mastrosimone (2–1)medium · wrist · 20 ft · beat Connor Hughes
2nd 19:52Penalty
2nd 19:52Penalty
3rd 1:43Owen Beck (2–2)high · wrist · 14 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 10:43Robert Mastrosimone (3–2)medium · wrist · 12 ft · beat Connor Hughes
3rd 11:00Penalty
3rd 11:54Laurent Dauphin (3–3)5v4 · high · tip · 14 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 13:10Vincent Arseneau (3–4)medium · wrist · 16 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 15:57Penalty
3rd 15:57Penalty
3rd 16:48Penalty
3rd 16:51Alex Steeves (4–4)5v4 · low · slap · 52 ft · beat Connor Hughes
3rd 19:40Owen Beck (4–5)low · wrist · 36 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby