Bridgeport Islanders at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Bridgeport Islanders

3:6

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

BRIPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

36%64%

xG: 2.32.3
High danger: 22
Chances: 78
Shots: 2728

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal28

7Scoring chances8

2High-danger chances2

2.26Expected goals2.30

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–12	4–1	1–1	0.8–0.8
2nd	10–10	1–3	0–1	0.8–0.9
3rd	9–6	2–4	1–0	0.6–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	2	15:45 of the 3rd	4:15	4:15	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Henrik Tikkanen

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 22
Allowed: 6
xGA: 2.30
GSAx: -3.70

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.26
GSAx: -0.74

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:33Penalty
1st 8:13Brian Pinho (1–0)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 11:52Penalty
1st 15:02Penalty
1st 17:31Marshall Warren (2–0)medium · 22 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 18:39Mason Millman (2–1)low · 42 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
1st 19:15Penalty
2nd 1:15Matthew Poitras (2–2)5v4 · medium · 24 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 3:27Penalty
2nd 9:07Michael Callahan (2–3)low · 32 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
3rd 8:45Chris Terry (3–3)low · 37 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 11:27Riley Duran (3–4)medium · 23 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
3rd 15:45Jeffrey Viel (3–5)medium · 29 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
3rd 16:50Riley Tufte (3–6)empty net · low · 78 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen