Hershey Bears at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Hershey Bears

3:2

Final / OT

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

HERLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

79%21%

xG: 2.91.7
High danger: 52
Chances: 115
Shots: 2523

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal23

11Scoring chances5

5High-danger chances2

2.93Expected goals1.70

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–6	3–1	0–1	0.6–0.4
2nd	9–9	4–2	3–1	1.1–0.5
3rd	8–6	3–1	1–0	1.0–0.5
OT	1–2	1–1	1–0	0.2–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:01	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 22
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.93
GSAx: -0.07

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.70
GSAx: -0.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

2nd 4:37Penalty
2nd 7:58Penalty
2nd 19:16Penalty
2nd 19:30Jacob Gaucher (0–1)4v5 · high · 16 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 10:43Penalty
3rd 11:10Penalty
3rd 12:11Ethan Bear (1–1)low · 22 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 16:21Helge Grans (1–2)medium · 7 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 19:57Henrik Rybinski (2–2)grade A · 10 ft · beat Cal Petersen
OT 4:39Chase Priskie (3–2)high · 12 ft · beat Cal Petersen