AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 7

Tucson Roadrunners at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Tucson Roadrunners
3:6
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

TUCCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
36%64%
xG
2.42.9
High danger
25
Chances
1112
Shots
3131

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal31
11Scoring chances12
2High-danger chances5
2.44Expected goals2.91

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st4–82–31–20.3–0.7
2nd7–141–60–20.4–1.4
3rd20–98–31–11.7–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC212:48 of the 3rd7:127:12+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
31
Saves
25
Allowed
6
xGA
2.91
GSAx
-3.09
Waltteri Ignatjew
Shots faced
31
Saves
28
Allowed
3
xGA
2.44
GSAx
-0.56

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:01William Strömgren (0–1)high · snap · 19 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 6:36Penalty
  • 1st 10:43Penalty
  • 1st 10:43Penalty
  • 1st 11:04Kevin Connauton (1–1)medium · wrist · 24 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 1st 13:11Josh Doan (2–1)high · backhand · 8 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 2nd 1:16Jérémie Poirier (2–2)medium · wrist · 21 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 3:02Rory Kerins (2–3)medium · wrist · 25 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 7:37Penalty
  • 2nd 9:33Sam Morton (2–4)5v4 · grade A · snap · rebound · 12 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 14:19Penalty
  • 2nd 18:07Hunter Drew (3–4)low · 40 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 2nd 18:27Penalty
  • 3rd 9:11Penalty
  • 3rd 12:25Penalty
  • 3rd 12:48Sam Morton (3–5)5v4 · medium · snap · 28 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 13:13Penalty
  • 3rd 17:03Penalty
  • 3rd 18:33Dryden Hunt (3–6)empty net · low · 155 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty